![]() ![]() The Saudi war on Yemen shows no signs of abating, and while the Syrian Civil War has dialed down to a low, slow burn, both the United States and Russia remain committed to their partners and proxies.īut like any slow burn, the conflict could reignite. Economic pressure on Iran continues to increase, as the United States take ever more aggressive steps to curtail trade. The perpetual political and military crisis in the Middle East has settled into an uneasy tedium. Given the continuing tensions between Russia and the United States, even a small shift could threaten the uneasy balance that has held for the last several years, potentially throwing Eastern Europe into chaos. The upcoming elections will probably not change the basic equation, but could introduce uncertainty. To be sure, Russia seems to lack any interest in disrupting the status quo ahead of the Ukrainian elections, while the Ukrainian government continues to lack the capacity to consequentially change facts on the ground. The declaration of martial law by the Ukrainian government suggested the possibility of unrest in Ukraine. Whether instigated by Russia or Ukraine (and both governments appear to have played some part), the interception reignited tensions in a crisis that has smoldered for the last couple of years. The world remembered Ukraine when an incident at the passage into the Sea of Azov resulted in shots fired, a ramming and the detention of two Ukrainian patrol vessels. Indeed, if China and the United States conclude that their trade relationship (which has provided the foundation of global economic growth for the last two decades) is at substantial risk, and similarly conclude that further conflict is inevitable, then either might decide to “ take off the gloves” in the SCS. ![]() However, as relations between the two countries deteriorate, one or the other might decide to escalate beyond dollars, words and legal filings. firms.Īs of yet the United States and China have not drawn a tight connection between the trade war and the ongoing disputes in the SCS. The United States and Canada recently escalated the conflict by arresting an executive of the Chinese technology firm Huawei, which led to counter-steps by China against Canadian citizens and U.S. For now, that conflict is playing out in exchanges of heated rhetoric, tariffs and various other trade sanctions. The South China Sea (SCS) has become wrapped into the growing trade clash between the United States and China. ![]()
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